At least five of California's nine House Republicans lost Tuesday under districts Democrats redrew through Proposition 50. The national wave, however, was big enough that Democrats would have taken the House without those seats.
Democrats needed 218 seats for a majority and had won at least 240 by Wednesday night, while also flipping the Senate. The party improved on its 2024 margin by 15 percentage points, toppling Republicans in deep-red districts that President Donald Trump carried by double digits two years ago.
Whether Democrats could have captured the same California seats under the old lines drawn by the state's independent commission is still unclear. Texas fared worse with its own gerrymander: Republican lawmakers there drew five GOP-leaning seats and lost all but one of them.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott pushed that map at the Trump administration's urging, and Gov. Gavin Newsom answered with Prop. 50, which voters approved to temporarily suspend California's commission and redraw lines to oust five Republicans. Rep. Zoe Lofgren said Newsom first wrote Abbott offering to stand down if Texas did; Texas pressed ahead. Abbott lost his own reelection bid Tuesday.
Lofgren, who leads the California Democratic delegation, said the measure gave despondent voters a chance to act against Trump. Paul Mitchell, who drew the new maps, said the Prop. 50 win helped fuel the broader wave and estimated that shoring up Southern California Democratic incumbents freed more than $100 million for races elsewhere.
Critics argue the state paid a steep price. Carah Ong Whaley of Better Choices for Democracy, which opposed the measure, said party elites led by Newsom drove the effort, not voters. Mike Madrid, a Lincoln Project co-founder and anti-Trump Republican, called it a very dangerous precedent and something Orwellian.
There was no need to undermine the work of independent redistricting when there has been so much good work done to improve representation
Carah Ong Whaley, executive director of Better Choices for Democracy
The Republicans who survived
California's Republican delegation is expected to shrink to four or even three members. Rep. Vince Fong beat Democrat Sandra Van Scotter with 63% of the vote as of Wednesday, and Rep. Tom McClintock led Democrat Michael Masuda with 56%.
In Orange County's 40th District, Rep. Ken Calvert had about 54% against fellow Republican Rep. Young Kim. Rep. Jay Obernolte held 51% against Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge in a Mojave Desert race not considered competitive before Election Day.
McClintock said in a statement that voters were angry about the economic toll of the war in Iran and tariffs, and that Congress had ceded too much power to the executive branch.
Republican strategist Rob Stutzman said the National Republican Congressional Committee will likely shift its focus to competitive seats in North Carolina, Texas and Florida. Consultant Jon Fleischman said he does not expect the remaining California Republicans to buck Trump or House leadership.
To win support for Prop. 50, California Democrats promised to roll back the maps before 2030 and pass a ban on gerrymandering. Lofgren, who has repeatedly introduced legislation to ban mid-decade redistricting and create independent commissions in every state, said she was optimistic a Democratic Congress would act but skeptical it would be bipartisan.
