Florida voters decide Tuesday between Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly in an unexpectedly competitive governor's race that will measure how durable the state's conservative turn really is.
No Democrat has captured the Florida governor's office since Lawton Chiles won in 1994.
The outcome will also show whether President Donald Trump's unpopularity, which has dragged on Republicans nationwide, reaches into his adopted home state. Democrats enter the vote encouraged by a run of special election victories over the past year, from Miami to Palm Beach.
Two congressmen, two strategies
Jolly, a former Republican congressman from Tampa, changed parties and ran as a centrist promising to steer Florida away from the culture wars that marked the tenure of outgoing Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Donalds, a congressman from southwest Florida, secured the Republican nomination with Trump's endorsement and has tried to paint Jolly as an out-of-touch liberal. If elected, he would become Florida's first Black governor, and he has courted Black voters, who have overwhelmingly supported Democrats.
Donalds has projected confidence throughout the contest while carefully calibrating his ties to Trump. He appeared with the president at a recent rally but kept references to him to a minimum on his campaign website.
Steep odds for Democrats
Jolly's path is narrow. Republicans hold a voter registration edge of roughly 1.5 million, and Donalds has far outpaced him in fundraising.
To close the gap, Jolly has campaigned both in Democratic strongholds such as Broward County and in traditionally Republican territory in central Florida and the Panhandle. The race has turned largely on high prices and the cost of homeowners insurance, a pressing concern in a hurricane-prone state.
For a generation, Florida was the nation's premier swing state, with elections often settled by fractions of a percentage point. DeSantis won his first race in 2018 by less than half a point, then pushed debates over race and gender, including a law critics call "Don't Say Gay" that bars instruction on sexual orientation and gender identity from kindergarten through third grade. He won reelection in 2022 by nearly 20 points.
Whoever wins will almost certainly govern alongside a Republican-controlled legislature. Democrats hope a strong Jolly showing could at least break the GOP supermajority, giving them more say in shaping legislation.
