The Senate negotiators behind a bipartisan permitting overhaul are pressing ahead with a vote set for Monday, Nov. 9, even though Democrats' midterm landslide has handed critics a fresh reason to wait and likely dimmed the bill's odds.
The measure, the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, or BAAJA, pairs a faster transmission buildout with provisions meant to shield energy projects from politically motivated attacks. Before the election, environmental and clean energy advocates praised the transmission pieces but warned about the project protections and changes to tribal consultation, and John Podesta and Rep. Sean Casten of Illinois joined the criticism.
Rep. Jared Huffman of California, in line to lead the House Natural Resources Committee, again urged the Senate to hold off and rework the bill in the next Congress, when Democrats will have more leverage. Democrats who stayed out of the fight may now feel emboldened to agree.
The bill's Democratic authors are not budging. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island said there is no guarantee Congress could ever find another compromise able to pass the Senate, and Sen. Martin Heinrich of New Mexico said lawmakers have chased permitting reform for the better part of a decade.
This is the closest we have come to actually finding something that can get signed into law. I’m not going to wait.
Martin Heinrich, U.S. senator from New Mexico
Supporters read the results as a mandate. Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, tied lower energy prices directly to permitting reform, and Jane Flegal, a senior fellow at the Searchlight Institute, argued that most federal tools for energy affordability are in the bill, including utility oversight, certainty for clean energy developers and requirements that data centers cover their costs.
Flegal also noted that the filibuster and veto will still exist in January. She said a Democrat who wins the White House in 2028 would need reforms already in motion, because they take years to implement.
Conditions for a Senate vote
Grumet said the legislation will not move unless the Trump administration releases a significant number of wind projects held up in Defense Department reviews, something President Trump had not done before the election. Still, he said every interaction with the administration shows it wants to close the deal.
The authors may also amend the tribal consultation and project certainty provisions before the vote. The Coalition of Large Tribes had been negotiating technical fixes rather than fighting the bill, and proponents say project certainty changes are underway, though it is unclear whether small tweaks would win House support or larger ones would upset the bipartisan balance.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has not shared his views. Joe Brazauskas, a partner at the government relations firm Bracewell, said environmental groups emboldened by the results hold strong views on the bill's Clean Water Act, Endangered Species Act and judicial review provisions, which he expects to shape how Democrats in Congress see it.
Hurdles in the House
Senate passage would leave a hard road in the House. Energy and Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie of Kentucky had sought changes to the transmission section, which would be costly for Southeast utilities by supporting competing interregional lines, and the Rules Committee is controlled mostly by southern Republicans who may share his sympathies.
House leaders could instead use suspension of the rules, which requires a two-thirds majority, or attach the bill to must-pass legislation, as Congress did with the Energy Act of 2020 after Trump lost to Joe Biden. That law was less controversial than BAAJA, making the approach riskier.
The vote count also depends on an open question after the Democratic sweep: how many House Republicans will even show up for the lame-duck session.
