Roughly six in 10 American voters fall into an ideologically mixed middle, according to Pew Research Center estimates. In this analysis, that figure is the strongest rebuke yet to the idea of a country split into two armed camps.
Researchers do not deny that the divide is real. Their argument is narrower and more useful: Americans consistently believe they are further apart than they actually are, a gap University of British Columbia psychology professor Kristin Laurin calls perceived polarization outrunning the real thing.
A cafe test in Houston
Consider two Houston friends in their early 50s, Shanna Berry and Alma Ong, who keep their bond intact by steering clear of politics. In January, asked about the U.S. capture of Venezuela's then-president Nicolas Maduro, they at first refused to answer.
Berry, a Christian, Air Force veteran and retired hairdresser who has backed President Trump, eventually said ending the regime was necessary. She added that she had doubts about the legality and suspected oil access played a strong role, but noted that many Venezuelans were happy.
Ong, a liberal Buddhist raised in London who moved to the U.S. in the 1990s and dislikes the president, said she agreed with every word. Both had expected to clash.
Where the gap comes from
Laurin said the exchange fits two patterns in the research. People avoid political talk because they fear conflict, and that avoidance leads them to inflate how much they differ.
These two friends were making assumptions about each other that turned out to be totally wrong
Kristin Laurin, psychology professor, University of British Columbia
She also pointed to deliberate pressure from above. Politicians and political elites cast opponents as extreme to scare and energize their own voters, Laurin said, while social media rewards rage bait because it drives engagement.
Shared values can surface across party lines when a case is stark enough. In April, former FBI Director James Comey was indicted over a beach photo of seashells that the Justice Department said amounted to a death threat against the president, and Democrats were not the only ones appalled.
In Maryland, Trump voters and Democrats alike defended Comey on First Amendment grounds. Stan Fletcher, a restaurant owner who backed Trump in all three of his races, said nobody should ever face charges for an opinion, and argued that 95% of Americans are moderates drowned out by the loudest voices on each flank.
What the numbers show
Pew sorts Americans into nine groups by values and attitudes rather than two parties. One, which it labels the Pragmatic and Polite Right, is 56% Republican or Republican-leaning and 37% Democratic or Democratic-leaning, with the oldest average age of any group.
That bloc prizes civility, leans conservative on economics and holds more moderate views on race and immigration. By contrast, Pew's two groups farthest to the right, the No Apologies Right and the Faith First Conservatives, together account for just 21% of the population.
We are a highly polarized country and there's also a lot of nuance underneath that
Jocelyn Kiley, Pew Research Center
Jocelyn Kiley, who leads politics research at Pew, said party labels hide substantial variation and overlap. The practical takeaway, in this analysis, is that the silence Berry and Ong used to protect their friendship is the very habit that keeps Americans misreading one another.
